Quit Arguing From Anecdote
Dave Slusher recently took on a topic that I've been bothered by as well. He pointed out how often people flatly state how long a podcast "should" be and how seldom that's based on anything other than their own interactions with podcasts.
Basically, people who have a 30 minute commute insist that they should all be about 30 minutes. Those who listen in short segments throughout the day often want them in 5-10 minute chunks.
This is something I see often and is pretty much arguing from anecdote. It drives me nuts. It happens whenever you use just yourself, a couple of people or a small subset of the population at large and act as though its representational of the entire group. Unfortunately, on the modern web, you can get what *seems* like a big group and think you're looking at a good sample. 10,000 people on the web is NOT necessarily representative of the whole.
I saw it again today when someone posted "the" 7 levels of site revenue.. He put Adsense as the lowest level. However, because he included his revenue per 1000 page views (CPM), lots of people reacted just like I did. See, he stated that Adsense only generates $1 per 1000 page views.
I actually had to read that twice because of how far off that is from the numbers I've seen. Of course, my numbers aren't representative either, but I'm not claiming they are. However, I've seen more than once where someone was told not to bother with Adsense because of those kinds of numbers.
This is all a problem because of something I'm guilty of as well. It's a technique for commanding authority when you make statements. You just remove all of the indications of doubt. "I think X is the best way to do Y" becomes "X is the best way to do Y", "My results with program Z was to net 123" becomes "Program Z nets 123".
Basically, when you just state your opinion as fact, most people will just accept it. That's hugely powerful and terribly dangerous. However, if you just insert the disclaimers into those statements, you can take them with the appropriate grain of salt.
In the case of Adsense numbers, pretty much *everything* you hear is anecdote. Google prohibits sharing the exact numbers you earn and aren't sharing any aggregate data with the public. As a result, everyone who is making proclamations about how much money people are making is pretty much basing it off of the few people they've talked to. That's highly likely to be a group of people in a very similar target niche or similar demographic, etc.
On the podcasting side, the entire podcasting market consists of early adopters at the moment. Basing long term format decisions on anecdotes at this point is pure folly. Consider how different TV is today from what it looked like 20 or 30 years ago.

