Mapping Reality to Common Graphs
There are a lot of common patterns in data that appear over and over again. When we can recognize patterns in our reality and match them to these known and documented patterns, we can much better understand what's actually going on and
Anyone who has sat through an intro to economics course even at the high school level has spent their fair share of time drawing and looking at supply/demand curves.
Similarly, if you've ever gathered statistics on nearly anything, you've seen a bell curve. For those who have been following the book The Long Tail and the subsequent media frenzy, power law curves are likely very familiar.
It's that very media frenzy that can be described by a graph that I'm fond of and tend to see in lots of places. It's called the hype cycle and describes how lots of things, technology in particular, go through a pattern of enthusiasm, disappointment and maturation.
What's wonderful about this curve is that once you know about it and start looking for it, it shows up all over and really puts lots of breathless technical press into perspective.
Basically, the idea of the curve is this:
- Someone invents new technology. (Hey, here's this thing called XML)
- Some people start using it and telling everyone how great it is. (Look what you can use XML for)
- People start buying into the hype and looking to use the new technology EVERYWHERE they can. (XML cures cancer)
- Some of those places are deeply inappropriate and those who didn't recognize that end up disappointed. (Umm, no it doesn't cure cancer)
- Backlash that leaves people rejecting even valid uses.
- Things settle down and the technology lands in its permanent niche.
The trick is that when you realize that a given technology or product is on this track, it's much easier to avoid getting caught up in it.
All of that is to explain why, when I was reading this article at Techcrunch that I laughed out loud when the graph loaded. The article is about a technology was hyped heavily last year and the article talks about whether it's demise is happening or not. However, what I found funny was that the graph was fairly close to the hype cycle.
And, for the record, I see many things in today's tech world that are teetering on the edge of falling into the trough of disillusionment at this point. Among them is that I've seen a new outcropping of backlash articles on Twitter, Lifehacking, etc. These are pretty much right on track and predictable.
Nothing to see here.
